A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
